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Feb 19, 02:54
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@edsny004 They are politicians that wear Robes
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Feb 19, 02:52
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@kropotkin0499 I understand your point but that is not the way SCOTUS thinks. They are worried they get blamed.
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Feb 19, 00:08
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I like this thinking...
SCOTUS sits in the Front Row for the SOTU.
If they rule against tariffs, and markets "wobble" in any way." Trump will look SCOTUS in the eye and tell the world they wrecked the economy.
Better to wait until the State of the Union passes.
Andy Constan (@dampedspring)
Here's a hot take. SCOTUS will not release the tariff decision on any of the upcoming known dates of 2/20, 2/23 or 2/24. Because of SOTU on the 24th so as to not be screamed at in the chamber https://t.co
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✓
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 19, 00:08
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I like this thinking...
SCOTUS sits in the Front Row for the SOTU.
If they rule against tariffs, and markets "wobble" in any way." Trump will look SCOTUS in the eye and tell the world they wrecked the economy.
Better to wait until the State of the Union passes. https://t.co/pAdhtKsG4C
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 18, 22:30
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@dampedspring I like it!
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 18, 14:26
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Below I mentioned that the “permission” bitcoin summer (bull market) is over.
Bloomberg posted a story that effectively said the same thing.
https://t.co/7el4V8Uu0G https://t.co/1TLga37fCG
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Feb 12, 19:02
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Software stocks are struggling again today. $IGV (iShares Software ETF) is essentially back to last week's panic lows.
Don't forget there's another type of software, "programmable money," crypto.
Bitcoin (blue) with the software index (orange).
They are the same thing. https://t.co/tLEELqcWcJ
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Feb 09, 14:32
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Correct! https://t.co/pcf8siIbTP
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Feb 09, 02:30
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Trump …
The halftime show sucks and is a slap in the face to the country with the best 401(k)s. https://t.co/S1HYUJDFxv
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Feb 09, 02:23
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The Patriots had 1 first down in the 3rd quarter… on a defensive penalty
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Feb 09, 02:13
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3:38 left in the third quarter …
Total points = 12
Total punts = 12
Worst Super Bowl ever?
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Feb 07, 16:05
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4/4
What breaks the cycle?
1. Regulation caps synthetics. (not with Trump)
2. A brutal winter/bear scorches TradFi's interest—like gold/silver post-2011.
3. $BTC's narrative evolves to outpace paper claims. (Not yet)
Bearish loop until then. Who is betting on #2?
$BTC
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Feb 07, 16:05
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1/4
I fear this is spot on.
@CryptoNobler's thread unpacks $BTC's "synthetic supply" problem. ETFs, structured notes (@CryptoHayes), futures, options, swaps, lending—all flood the system with "paper" BTC.
When it swamps real demand, price crashes.
https://t.co/zWfyxNlvrh https://t.co/9it54buYZE
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Feb 07, 16:05
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3/4
Wall Street's entry turned BTC into a pseudo-fractional reserve system.
21M cap? On-chain only—price discovery swims in synthetic street "printing."
Fractional is inherently unstable. That's why banks need heavy regs (Fed/Treasury/OCC/FDIC).
On-chain BTC only needs code.
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Feb 07, 16:05
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2/4
@CryptoHayes: structured notes on $IBIT flooded $BTC with synthetic supply → forced liquidations turbocharged the dump.
Next rally? TradFi piles into ETFs → Wall Street "prints" more synthetics.
Price discovery decoupled from on-chain.
Volatility on steroids
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Feb 07, 09:50
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Last sentence is key.
Trump sees ~26% annualized to Dow 100k by 2029.
If it fails, it won’t be the Fed’s fault for slow cuts — it’ll be the Supreme Court’s for (supposedly) killing tariffs on Feb 20.
The Court becomes Trump’s new whipping boy, and Warsh is off the hook. https://t.co/4qESWbdCEz
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Feb 05, 22:09
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Silver is down 21% in the last 24 hours, and is now below last Friday's crash low.
Why is this happening? When markets get chaotic and dysfunctional, the most vulnerable and most leveraged get taken out and killed first.
This is somewhat analogous to the very early days of the https://t.co/yTbhZiLObZ
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Feb 05, 21:27
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It has been said that crypto is "programmable money." If so, $BTC should trade like software stocks. And this chart shows they do.
Is the era of AI Agents, which is killing SaaS, and smashing software stocks, is "programmable money" suffering under the same fate? https://t.co/psuIgxkOyM
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Feb 05, 21:00
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Look away, not pretty.
The avg purchase price for a $BTC ETF is $90K, 41% underwater, or a $15B unrealized loss.
Need ~ 50% rally to get back to breakeven!
ETF hodlers (boomers) had diamond hands during the decline. But, does this serve to set up a coming capitation (puke)? https://t.co/YReSrNaZ0P
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Feb 05, 20:31
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The $BTC carnage is accelerating. Now down 12+% today.
Now the 4th worst day this decade.
The other 3 were days around something "breaking." So, what is "breaking" now?
Nov 9, 2022, FTX failure
Jun 13, 2022, Terra Luna Collapse
Mar 12, 2020, worst of COVID Shutdown https://t.co/fEJ4lzCX3k
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Feb 05, 14:20
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I see a number of degens blaming this decline on the Clarity Act getting stalled in Congress.
If you're mad at the Government not giving Crypto "permission" to rally ... you have really lost the plot!
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Feb 05, 13:28
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*BITCOIN FALLS BELOW $70,000 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE NOV. 6 2024 https://t.co/coh8BMleEl
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Feb 05, 13:27
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Crypto is built on the principle of being permissionless; it's supposed to be a disruptive force to Tradfi. I believe in this mission. In many ways, Tradfi needs to be disrupted.
This is why I bristled against **TradFi / Boomer Adoption** narrative. Asking permission from Larry https://t.co/g4hnaZC00V
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Feb 05, 11:59
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Same argument again at $18k in 2022. https://t.co/4HodFz0rr1
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Feb 05, 11:43
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Back on oct 11, 2018 ($BTC $6,250) he wrote this “famous tweet,” near the low.
Now he is back with the same argument at $70k.
Into the darkness of breaking below $70k is some hope.
https://t.co/sSzJN56p8F https://t.co/iyIJzVcRHR
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Feb 05, 03:01
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Crashing back to Friday's low
*SPOT SILVER DROPS BY AS MUCH AS 14%, ERASING TWO DAYS OF GAINS https://t.co/ydXnjoCJtS
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Feb 05, 02:14
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I've been digging into this agentic AI stuff quite a bit lately—I've got Pro access on a few of the top tools like Gemini, Copilot, Grok, Claude and Perplexity—so I've been messing around with them hands-on and seeing how they actually work in real workflows.
Makes the
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Feb 05, 02:00
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Totally agree that the pricing-power-erosion angle is the real gut punch here, even if demand doesn't evaporate overnight.
I've been thinking about this sell-off, and it reminds me a lot of what happened with Disney/ESPN back in August 2015. Bob Iger basically admitted on the https://t.co/RaNo3DxBqs https://t.co/invfVglAiT
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Feb 03, 18:42
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The Trump 2.0 $BTC rally has now been reversed.
*BITCOIN DROPS TO LOWEST PRICE SINCE TRUMP’S ELECTION VICTORY
The correction is now 41.5% since the October 6, 2025 high ($126k) https://t.co/ezP19mbnf4
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Feb 03, 12:18
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Both scrape millions of prices from the internet, and they say prices are booming, the opposite reading of @truflation
https://t.co/QjjRFMgEbD https://t.co/irLqdyNgNN
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Feb 02, 17:22
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Today is Groundhog's day.
What a perfect day to have the story above!
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Feb 02, 17:19
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Looks like we're doing this again!
*BLS WILL DELAY RELEASE OF JAN. JOBS REPORT DUE TO GOVT SHUTDOWN
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The government shut down at midnight Saturday.
They're hoping to pass the bill to reopen it today or tomorrow, but apparently, that is enough to get the BLS to delay Friday's
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Feb 02, 03:47
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No bounce... pickup up where we left off on Friday.
*SPOT GOLD FALLS 5%, ADDING TO BIGGEST PLUNGE IN OVER A DECADE
(Down 18% from Thursday's high) https://t.co/LUlsDZmTBi
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Feb 02, 02:08
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2/2
Top Panel
Daily flows into ALL $BTC ETFs. Outflows to 10 straight days (last inflow, Jan 15). New Record
Trw (Mon), the mkt will react to an 8% decline since Friday's NYSE close. (11th day?)
Bottom Panel
Cumulative flows. Peaked in early Oct.
Net seller for months. https://t.co/Xv1EbbHAnY
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Feb 02, 02:08
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1/2
Follow-up to the 🧵👇
Comments say that if 10% of $BTC is held by the Spot $BTC ETFs, this is good because they are diamond-handed institutions that will not sell.
Avg size of ETF trades:
SPY=$111.3K
GLD=$87K
$BTC ETFs=$15.8K
$BTC ETFs = retail
https://t.co/DGQtzl6vth https://t.co/QVS5xESLbH
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Feb 01, 21:11
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6/6
Boombers are collectively holding losses, the ETFs have had outflows for a record 10 straight days, and the $BTC is down 8% from Friday's NYSE close.
$BTC needs a new narrative, see post #5 in the repost.
https://t.co/KtvgTDf3sy
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Feb 01, 21:11
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5/6
Strategy has been buying bitcoin since 2020, averaging $76.02K per purchase (blue). It is currently holding an unrealized profit of just $1.17B (bottom panel).
This unrealized profit was $30+ B last October. https://t.co/F73DlHIFJ8
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Feb 01, 21:11
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4/6
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy or $MSTR) hold 713K of $BTC (orange). When combined with the Spot $BTC ETFs (blue), these two entities own 10% of all bitcoin (green). https://t.co/BmsZftL4Nx
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Feb 01, 21:11
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3/6
The 11 Spot $BTC ETFs average purchase price is ~$90.2K (blue), about $13K (16%) above the current price (bottom panel).
Note these ETFs are collectively on a record 10 consecutive outflow days. $BTC is down ~8% since Friday's NYSE close. https://t.co/dlK9BlzSiL
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Feb 01, 21:11
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2/6
The 11 biggest spot $BTC ETFs now hold 1.29M $BTC – worth over $115B (Friday PM).
These ETFs hold roughly 6.5% of all $BTC in circulation.
The 3 largest – iShares’ $IBIT (blue), Fidelity’s $FBTC (red), and Grayscale’s $GBTC (orange) – hold 5.65%. https://t.co/TE1b3unN39
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Feb 01, 21:11
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1/6
10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the 11 Spot BTC ETFs.
These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts.
Collectively, the avg purchase price is $85.36K, meaning the average is now ~$8k underwater, with an unrealized loss of ~$7B.
🧵 https://t.co/KLdTWPUfBv
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Feb 01, 18:01
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Trump said this last night …
Assuming that Warsh gets confirmed without complication, he will Chair his first Fed meeting on June 17.
What if the Fed doesn’t cut rate at this meeting?!? https://t.co/KftftTMTd4
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Feb 01, 05:55
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Will this complicate his nomination to be Fed chair?
--
Kevin Warsh is named in the latest Epstein files release:
* 2010 St. Barts Xmas guest list email
* Dinner attendee hosted by British Aristocrat William Astor.
No island visits or misconduct evidence.
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Feb 01, 05:37
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4/4
Today, it is silver-market stress (for now??). See the last few days of premium/discounts.
If silver "rights the ship" in the next few days, we live to fight another day.
If not, that "another day" might be now for the firms caught on the wrong side of this liquidity gap. https://t.co/YKjd5xABfE
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Feb 01, 05:37
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3/4
While -1.7% sounds small vs 19%, it is historically massive.
This is the deepest liquidity dislocation in $SLV since Aug 9, 2011—the day after the US lost its AAA rating.
Discounts don't mean the ETF is broken. They signal the underlying market is under severe stress.
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Feb 01, 05:37
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2/4
But the stress is still real.
The chart below recalculates SLV's "fair value" at 4 PM ET using spot prices to eliminate the timing lag.
When we do that, the "timing" 19% discount vanishes, revealing the real discount: -1.7%.
@dampedspring @EricBalchunas @SantiagoAuFund https://t.co/ptOcMNoJb2
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Feb 01, 05:37
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1/4
The viral "19% discount" in $SLV is a timing artifact, not a broken product.
The Official NAV is based on the London Fix (~7 AM ET). This means the official price missed the entire afternoon crash in the US futures market.🧵 https://t.co/1SaF2RhIB1 https://t.co/F5MCPWswlj
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Feb 01, 01:14
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The Government is set to shut down at Midnight tonight.
A deal was struck to end it on Monday when the House returns to vote.
If this story is correct ... maybe not.
Are you ready to take this ride again? https://t.co/C0kXXjwKsd
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Feb 01, 00:52
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To be clear, I said the "silver market is broken," not $SLV is broken.
ETFs always trade at premiums/discounts. That does not mean something is wrong with the ETF. Instead, extremes signal problems in the underlying market.
Like this chart, the biggest move in 75+ years. https://t.co/NHjNOk1Jwv
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Jan 31, 21:57
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Yesterday's 19% discount to NAV broke the record set on 10/10/2008, the day the TARP was introduced during the Global Financial Crisis.
Before Friday's collapse, SLV had about $60 billion in assets.
The chart above shows that the silver market is now broken, meaning there is a https://t.co/TvBVjreIIM https://t.co/JWNdrEXI5O
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Jan 31, 20:36
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5/5
Don’t get excited if Larry Fink likes you. Work to take his business away from him.
https://t.co/snRaPCsaYC
It will be hard, but:
A South African outsider didn't ask the aerospace establishment or Detroit for permission. He just rendered them obsolete. 🚀
@elonmusk
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Jan 31, 20:36
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4/5
Winter continues until a new narrative emerges.
It won't be about institutional permission. It will be about replacement.
The next leg up belongs to builders creating an alternative financial system (BTC/DeFi/Stables) that makes legacy finance irrelevant. https://t.co/Wrpgf1K45m
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Jan 31, 20:36
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3/5
This explains why "good news" isn't moving the price.
Kevin Warsh speaking? Walmart accepting crypto? Nice stories, but priced in months ago.
Even old correlations—dollar debasement & tech stocks—are failing. The market has discounted the "adoption" story to zero. https://t.co/EZeVEmIrpt
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Jan 31, 20:36
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2/5
Yes, we saw a marginally higher high in Oct 2025 ($126k), but it was a "zombie rally."
It looked like a breakout, but it was just residual momentum. The smart money riding the institutional adoption wave had begun exiting in Dec 2024.
Stop chasing a ghost. https://t.co/ZxQDkJ7VCY
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Jan 31, 20:36
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1/5
The Bitcoin "Boomer Adoption" Trade is Dead
Markets are discounting mechanisms. They price the narrative long before the event occurs.
The "TradFi" narrative drove $BTC up 400% ($25k → $106k) from BlackRock’s filing to Trump’s victory.
But that engine is now out of fuel🧵 https://t.co/qDgFuxLWCZ
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Jan 31, 17:59
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Bitcoin is now below $80k for the first time since April 7th.
This was just a few days after the April 2nd "Liberation Day" collapse began, when markets were in full hyperventilation mode.
$BTC https://t.co/icT7EUu2Jc
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Jan 31, 17:17
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4/4
Such a violent reversal, even if it is only at a two- or three-week low, can be a problem given the massive amount of volume that has traded well above current levels.
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Jan 31, 17:17
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2/4
Silver prices (above) have only given back the last two weeks or so. How can a mid-January level produce a stressful situation?
Here is the entire history of the value traded (volume x price) for the ~$60B iShares Silver ETF ( $SLV), a proxy for the entire silver market. https://t.co/1sd9LnJLK9
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Jan 31, 17:17
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3/4
Here is the last 6 months of the chart above, aligned with the post #1 chart.
The last 10 days or so, the value traded was over $200B. Friday's close is well below these levels.
For comparison, in early November, the 10-day value traded was less than $10B.
20x increase https://t.co/gWIyDaWA0E
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Jan 31, 17:17
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1/4
Here is a six-month bar chart of silver prices.
It is no surprise that such a bar chart often signals "problems." https://t.co/PlFJ4iD2k1 https://t.co/jncP4MlaXQ
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Jan 30, 12:49
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The Fed fund futures market is pricing a 17% probability that the Fed cuts rates at the March meeting.
Now that Kevin Warsh has been nominated for Fed chairman, will Chris Waller dissent at that meeting for a rate cut?
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Jan 30, 12:22
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How does this solve the affordability crisis?
Asking for a renter friend of mine. https://t.co/17ZWvN4Xky
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Jan 30, 11:53
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Trump makes it official https://t.co/qkUeWIZouw
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Jan 30, 05:33
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As I've argued for a few months now, this explains what Fed watching has now become.
It is no longer about what the Fed chairman says, it's about counting FOMC voter intentions and seeing which side of the ledger has 7 votes (majority of the 12 FOMC voters). https://t.co/pobnInL6hi
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Jan 30, 05:08
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The announcement is expected on Friday morning.
Bloomberg:
*TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SAID TO BE PREPARING WARSH FED NOMINATION
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The scuttlebutt is they were indeed looking for "door #5," And Scott Bessent even met with @judyshel on Monday (but not Trump).
In the end, they https://t.co/ZaIsIb4qUW
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Jan 29, 17:50
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This is why he is struggling to fill the Fed Chairman job
He needs someone that not only agrees with this, but will make this the roadmap for monetary policy. And this person needs to command the respect of not only Wall Street but get through Senate confirmation.
There are https://t.co/olLwjwKFYo
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Jan 29, 17:21
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3/3
Combine them and they are ~10% of the $BTC in circulation, and the overwhelming majority of Tradfi’s securities account holdings of $BTC.
Below shows they now have no unrealized profits.
Restated, the “boomer adoption” narrative of the last two years now have no gains. https://t.co/x6rXZ5lfWK
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Jan 29, 17:21
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2/3
The largest Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) is Strategy (formally Microstrategy, $MSTR) has an average purchase price of $76,020.
They are sitting on ~$8,000 profit, or about ~12% gain. https://t.co/dF4dVVTHRm
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Jan 29, 17:21
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1/3
Bitcoin breakeven update …
The average purchase for all the flows into all the spot $BTC since inception (January 2024) is $90,200. With today’s plunge, the AVERAGE $BTC ETF holder is about $5,000 (or ~7% underwater). https://t.co/B9AGyzKq26
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Jan 28, 22:45
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1/2
Betting to replace Powell, here are the latest probabilities:
Rieder 36%
Warsh 26%
Waller 17%
"Door #5" 14%
Hassett 7%
When no one is trading above 40%, it means the race to succeed Powell is wide open... even "Door #5" (someone else) is now in play. https://t.co/8uEvpZJutH
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Jan 28, 22:45
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2/2
Bettors think Waller's dissent in favor of a cut "got him back in the game" to replace Powell. https://t.co/KTEjTO2POE
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Jan 28, 20:24
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Michelle Smith is the voice you hear off-camera saying who gets the next question.
The order is not pre-arranged with reporters. Her office decides who gets to answer questions and does not share that information in advance.
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Jan 28, 20:17
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Question for reporters in the Fed presser.
Are you afraid to ask difficult or probing questions to the Chairman out of fear that Michelle Smith, the head of the Fed press office, will either exclude you or not call on you in future pressers?
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Jan 28, 20:00
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Ok, one potential important statement by Powell
*POWELL: GROWTH IN LABOR SUPPLY HAS COME ESSENTIALLY TO A HALT
Is he saying now the labor break-even rate is zero? At least follow up on this.
It's probably the most important thing he said so far
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Jan 28, 19:57
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Ask this!!
Chairman Powell, you have accused the President of the United States of using the Justice Department to conduct a criminal investigation to get you to change monetary policy.
This might be the biggest charge a Federal Reserve Chairman has made against a President in
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Jan 28, 19:51
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The rest of this Press Conference is turning to what may be meaningless questions about the economic outlook that really do not matter, given the questions he will not answer.
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Jan 28, 19:47
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Kudos to the press for asking Fed Chairman Powell about his accusation that the President is using the Justice Department to influence monetary policy.
He said, "Now is not the time or place."
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Powell's charge is probably the most significant charge a Federal Reserve
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Jan 28, 19:21
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Economists and former Fed Governors on TV argue that Chris Waller's dissent was not politically motivated to increase his chances of being picked as Fed Chairman by Trump.
Prediction market traders disagree. https://t.co/p3qS10YGtd
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Jan 28, 19:03
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Waller yells... "Pick me, pick me!"
*FED VOTES 10-2 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE
*FED SAYS GOVERNORS WALLER, MIRAN DISSENT IN FAVOR OF 25 BPS CUT https://t.co/mAzO8uy6C7
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Jan 28, 17:46
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Below is the full transcript from Powell's video statement released on January 11. This SHOULD dominate the Q&A of the Fed meeting. Although I think it will probably not.
It is an extraordinary charge that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is accusing the President of using
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Jan 28, 16:15
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I expect a 9-3 vote to hold on rates. The three dissents will be for a cut.
The three dissenters will be Miran (for a 50-basis-point cut), Waller, and Bowman.
If Waller does not dissent for a cut, he disqualifies himself from being picked by Trump to be Fed Chairman.
Bessent
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Jan 28, 16:05
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We were told last week (we have been saying since Thanksgiving) that the decision on the Fed chair has been made and will be announced shortly.
Bessent headlines from this morning
My take ... they are stuck, not sure what to do. Sounds like no announcement anytime soon.
They https://t.co/OnhH7nyy1Y
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Jan 28, 14:59
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The bottom panel shows the @polymarket implied probability that "someone else" ("door #5") will be the next Fed chairman. It is rising fast now and the only uptrend, but still only 13%. (It is 100% minus the sum of the top panel).
The story below explains why.
@MarkHalperin https://t.co/AnG7uzJhA4 https://t.co/UXMvzQHeTO
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Jan 27, 23:17
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Updating on the betting for who will be the next Fed chair.
While Rick Rieder is leading, no one is trading above 50%. So, no strong conviction.
Summing up the four finalists equals 89.2%. Or, as the bottom panel shows, 10.8% that it will be someone else (explained below). https://t.co/ciBMo0KnF2 https://t.co/1EEw7SIA0q
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Jan 27, 21:55
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K-shape https://t.co/WDHgcGqEeS https://t.co/KQtHKE3EHN
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Jan 27, 16:40
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What great timing!
It's almost like he knew this would happen!!!
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Red headlines on Bloomberg earlier this AM
*UNITEDHEALTH, CVS SINK MORE THAN 9% ON MEDICARE RATES REPORT
*UNITEDHEALTH SINKS 16% AT OPEN, HUMANA FALLS 17%, CVS DROPS 11% https://t.co/CUoEpOQi0D
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Jan 27, 03:48
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Even more impressive is its total value traded (turnover) today of over $39B. https://t.co/uO4s9S1XPI
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Jan 27, 02:28
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iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the $56B ETF that holds physical Silver, saw booming volume today. https://t.co/GE0ruVC3lP
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Jan 27, 00:12
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I learned today that Doug Ramsay of @LeutholdGroup passed away this weekend.
We were friends for over 25 years, and he was a great family man and analyst.
I will miss you. https://t.co/KjjbKh6D0O
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Jan 25, 00:25
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From Bloomberg ...
(No January payroll report???)
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Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer vowed to block a massive funding package next week unless Republicans agree to strip funding for the Department of Homeland Security, dramatically increasing the risk for a partial US
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Jan 25, 00:14
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To be clear, 60 votes are needed to prevent a filibuster.
The Republicans have 53 seats. They need 7 Democrats to vote to prevent a filibuster.
Once a filibuster is prevented, it only takes 51 votes to pass the bill.
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Jan 25, 00:01
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Five minutes after I wrote the above post, this red headline hit Bloomberg
*SCHUMER THREATENS TO BLOCK APPROPRIATIONS BILL OVER DHS FUNDING
Polymarket jumped from 74% to 80%
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Jan 24, 23:52
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The chart below is the Polymarket betting on another government shutdown on January 31. It has spiked from 9% to 74% today in reaction to the Border Patrol shooting in Minneapolis.
The thought is that this latest event will embolden the Senate Democrats to filibuster its https://t.co/dhyCZjjyGq
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Jan 24, 19:58
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For months, I have been arguing that Trump doesn't like any of the four finalists for Fed Chairman. He's afraid they're telling him what he wants to hear to get the job, and not committed to cutting the funds rate to 1%. He might not be wrong.
So, he is looking for somebody https://t.co/I4GBnpqmS1 https://t.co/UKxCXmgtrY
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